Григорович А.В.кандидат экономических наук, доцент кафедры экономической безопасности, финансов и бухгалтерского учета, Российский университет кооперации (РУК), Мытищи, Московская область, Российская Федерация a_kozhanova@bk.ru https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5892-0841 SPIN-код: 5137-8705
Предмет. Модели определения финансовой устойчивости малых и средних предприятий (МСП) к дефолту. Цели. Поиск в отечественной и зарубежной экономической литературе наиболее точной модели для предсказания вероятности дефолта российских МСП, а также разработка новой модели на актуальной базе данных финансовых показателей, полученных из открытых источников. Методология. Использован метод логистической регрессии, программа SPSS. Анализ финансовых показателей и коэффициентов, динамики их развития, нефинансовых показателей деятельности на базе 49 268 российских МСП. Результаты. Разработана шестифакторная логит-модель оценки вероятности дефолта за год до его наступления, показавшая наиболее высокую точность предсказания в сравнении с имеющимися в литературе моделями. Выводы. Представленная логит-модель за счет широкой аналитической базы, высокой точности предсказания, легкости использования и интерпретации результатов подходит для широкого круга пользователей, желающих инвестировать в российские МСП.
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